Read Chapter 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain, pages 185 – 204, and review the Chapter 7 PP ...
Read Chapter 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain, pages 185 – 204, and review the Chapter 7 PP, Part B Slides beginning with slide 38 (Note that Part B contains Part A for reference slides). Homework H9: Discussion Questions 4, 8, 9 on page 199 (see attached). H9_a. Exercise 1, p. 200 (continued from last week). Referring to H8_a.xlsx, tab Exercise 1, evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, MSE (already elevated in H8_a.xlsx). Use section 7.6 and 7.7 as a guide to evaluate the quality of the forecast. Be sure to reference the various charts in H8_a.xlsx that discuss Normality of the forecast errors, the tracking signal, MAD, MSE, etc. Do NOT simply state "the forecast looks good" or some other trivial statement lacking reference to all the important material provided in H8_a.xlsx. H9_b. Exercise 2, p. 200 (continued from last week). Review H8_a.xlsx and, for the two cases in part a) and b) below that were performed in H8_b last week, answer part c). a) 4-week moving average (MA) b) exponential moving average with a=0.1 (EMA) c) evaluate the MAD, MSE, bias, for case (a) and (b) above. Which method (MA or EMA) do you prefer? Why? Hint: compare MSE and MAD for each method and select the one with minimum MSE and MAD. This problem is discussed on slides 49 and 50 of Chapter 7 PP, Part B. Required Textbook: Supply Chain Management, 7th Edition, Author: Chopra. Publisher: Pearson, ISBN-10: 0134731883.
