Discussion Topic Begin this discussion by reviewing the "Key Concepts" to be considered when addres ...
Discussion Topic Begin this discussion by reviewing the "Key Concepts" to be considered when addressing the discussion prompts in the first tab below. Each of these concepts are elaborated upon in the text readings for this module. After reviewing the tabs for instructions for your "Original Post" and "Replies" for this discussion, select the "Examples" tab for examples of participation in this discussion. KEY CONCEPTS: Recall from our 2.1 Discussion that a survey method is the means by which the data is obtained from the sample. For example, the survey method may be a telephone interview, a web-based questionnaire, or an in-person focus group. The sample mean or sample proportion is a statistic that was calculated from the sample used in your poll. It is part of the findings or results of your poll. For example, if you calculated the average age of a sample of randomly selected college students and you found that the mean of the sample was 25, the results of your poll would be that the average age of a college student (in the population of college students) is approximately 25. The margin of error is a measure by which your sample statistic may be overpredicting or underpredicting the actual value of the population parameter you are estimating. The margin of error is a calculation based on your confidence level, your sample size, and your standard deviation (how spread out the data values are). For example, if the mean age of your sample was 25, "plus or minus 2.9," you are saying that while you calculated that your randomly selected sample has an average age of 25, the actual mean population age is likely to be between 2.9 years less than 25 and 2.9 years more than 25. The range of numbers you obtain by performing these two calculations is your confidence interval (CI). For example, if the sample average age is x-bar = 25, and the margin of error is calculated to be E = 2.9, then the confidence interval (CI) would be CI = (x-bar - E, x-bar + E) = (25 - 2.9, 25 + 2.9) = (22.1, 27.9) You would approximate the average age in the population to be between 22.1 and 27.9. The confidence level is the level of certainty with which you make a claim about a population parameter. For the above example, if your margin of error was calculated using a confidence level of 95%, you would interpret your confidence interval by saying, "I am 95% confident that the average age of a college student is between 22.1 and 27.9 years." The confidence level is 95%. Another way to interpret this confidence interval is to say that 95% of samples randomly selected from this population will have an average age in this range of numbers (the confidence interval), but 5% of the samples randomly selected from this population may have an average age that does NOT fall in this range. When deciding whether a confidence level is "appropriate," we should consider the consequences of being "wrong." If we make a decision based on results for 95% of samples in a population, that decision may not be the best decision for 5% of samples in the population. Consider the following 2 statements: Your doctor is 95% confident about the number of guests who will enjoy the dessert he serves at his dinner party. Your doctor is 95% confident about the number of his patients who will die from an allergic reaction to a new medication he prescribes. Is the 95% confidence level an acceptable confidence level in both cases? (Most people would say they want the doctor to be more confident in his results about his patients! In other words, when we are deciding whether our 95% confidence level is "appropriate," we are considering the consequences of making a decision that could be wrong for the 5% of samples that will not have an average or proportion that fall within the calculated confidence interval and weighing the risks. Select the "Original Post" tab for instructions on how to make your first post in this discussion. ORIGINAL POST: Get on the Gallup websiteLinks to an external site.. Pick one of the articles (not a blog) on the Gallup website OR select an article from the "Resources" page of this discussion. In your original post, answer the following: Describe the survey methods used by Gallup. State a major finding, claim, or result in your poll involving a sample mean or sample proportion. State the margin of error presented in the article. (You may need to scroll down and find the “survey methods” box; then click the + to open this box and find this information.) State the confidence level for the poll. (You may find this in the article, or you might also find it in the "survey methods" box.) Construct a confidence interval for the sample mean or sample proportion you identified. Select the "Resources" tab for a list of some of the Gallup polls from which you can choose. You may also select a different poll from the Gallup website, provided you are able to address each of the discussion prompts with the poll you choose. Check with your instructor if you are unsure. Select the "Examples" tab to see what an original post for this discussion might look like. Select the "Replies" tab for instructions on what you should include in your replies to classmates in this discussion. RESOURCES: Saad, L. (2020, October 30). Americans plan to scale back on holiday spending this year. https://news.gallup.com/poll/322796/americans-plan-scale-back-holiday-spending-year.aspxLinks to an external site. Crabtree, S. (2020, October 29). Americans' social distancing habits have tapered since July. https://news.gallup.com/poll/322064/americans-social-distancing-habits-tapered-july.aspxLinks to an external site. Saad, L. (2020, October 29). Americans' readiness to get COVID-19 vaccine falls to 50%. https://news.gallup.com/poll/321839/readiness-covid-vaccine-falls-past-month.aspxLinks to an external site. Brenan, P. (2020, October 20). Americans favor saving over spending until vaccine. https://news.gallup.com/poll/318815/americans-favor-saving-spending-until-vaccine.aspxLinks to an external site. Brenan, M. (2020, October 29). More voters than in prior years say election outcome matters. https://news.gallup.com/poll/322010/voters-prior-years-say-election-outcome-matters.aspxLinks to an external site. Newport, F. (2020, October 28). Americans and the role of government. https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/321767/americans-role-government.aspxLinks to an external site. Saad, L. (2020, October 29). U.S. satisfaction with women's treatment remains tepid. https://news.gallup.com/poll/317279/satisfaction-women-treatment-remains-tepid.aspxLinks to an external site. McCarthy, J. (2020, October 29). Ideal evenings for most Americans involve family time, TV. https://news.gallup.com/poll/313028/ideal-evenings-americans-involve-family-time.aspxLinks to an external site. Saad, L. (2020, October 29). U.S. conservatism down since start of 2020. https://news.gallup.com/poll/316094/conservatism-down-start-2020.aspxLinks to an external site. Gallup, I. (2020, May 21). The characteristics of good jobs for low-income workers. https://www.gallup.com/education/309911/characteristics-good-jobs-low-income-workers.aspxLinks to an external site. EXAMPLE POST: Example Original PostNote: the following discussion prompts are addressed for a "fabricated" Gallup poll. Describe the survey methods used by Gallup. In the poll I selected, data was collected by phone interviews. The sample was selected from the population of voters in a particular state using random-digit dialing. State a major finding, claim, or result in your poll involving a sample mean or sample proportion. Gallup researchers calculated in this study that approximately 39% of the randomly selected sample of voters in this state were undecided about who they would vote for in the next election. State the margin of error presented in the article. (You may need to scroll down and find the “survey methods” box; then click the + to open this box and find this information.) The researchers calculated the margin of error to be ±2.1%. State the confidence level for the poll. (You may find this in the article, or you might also find it in the "survey methods" box.) The researchers elected to use a confidence level of 95% for this study. Construct a confidence interval for the sample mean or sample proportion you identified. CI = (x-bar - E, x-bar + E) = (39% - 2.1%, 39% + 2.1%) = (36.9%, 41.1%)ReferencesDon't forget to include your APA-formatted reference for the Gallup poll that you discuss HERE!
